“Everything up in the air”: LNG, the Strait of Hormuz, and Central & Eastern Europe’s energy future
"LNG shipments to Central & Eastern Europe are reliable as long as those gas markets are not overly dependent upon one supplier."
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In March 2012, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington to press a US president on slowing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Inside the White House, the dilemma was stark.
On February 28, the US and Israel launched new attacks on Iran targeting primarily the country's leadership, security forces, and missile program.
The Iran war has disrupted Eastern Mediterranean gas production, exports, and development, threatened regional energy infrastructure, and increased political and investment uncertainty.
The US-Israeli war against Iran highlights the Gulf’s dual role as the backbone of global energy supply and a major source of systemic risk.
Almost 90 percent of the LNG that transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 was destined for Asian countries.
Within days of the initial U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, the world was plunged into an energy crisis.
Energy has reemerged this year as a central force shaping our world—both a geopolitical weapon and an economic fault line.
When the Iran War disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and tightened global gas balances, a familiar assumption quickly resurfaced: Russia, possessing the largest proven natural gas reserves in the world, would inevitably emerge as one of the principal beneficiaries.
The Iran war will accelerate the region’s economic transformation.
An historic supply shock is testing the energy-exporting economies of the Gulf and reshaping global energy security.