More than a month into the Iran conflict, the United States and Iran are at a critical inflection point. What was initially widely expected to be a short, multi-week military campaign has instead become a protracted and uncertain confrontation, marked by the risk of further escalation, potential ceasefire talks, and growing implications for the global economy. What initially appeared to be a contained conflict among Iran, Israel, the US, and Gulf states now risks either a broader regional war or an unstable, fragile ceasefire.
In this rapid response webinar, CGEP scholars assess how the conflict has evolved relative to initial expectations, examining where forecasts proved accurate and where they fell short. The discussion explores implications for US-Iran relations, including the prospects for renewed nuclear diplomacy or the further erosion of any pathway to a deal, as well as the positioning of Gulf states, whose strategic calculations are shaping both the regional balance and potential paths to de-escalation. Finally, the panel evaluates the conflict’s impact on global energy markets, from price volatility to infrastructure risks and longer-term supply dynamics.
Participants include:
