It’s been a head-spinning day in the Iran war. Earlier today, following a temporary truce between Lebanon and Israel, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely open” to commercial shipping during this ceasefire. Initial reactions from President Donald Trump were optimistic, but that gave way to some confusion about what “open” actually means in practice. The president later clarified that the existing U.S. blockade on Iranian vessels would remain in place.
Despite the confusion, markets responded quickly. Brent crude dropped below $90 a barrel for the first time in weeks, though prices are still meaningfully elevated relative to pre-war levels. Even with the reprieve, much uncertainty looms as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire deadline of next Tuesday, April 21, approaches
So, what does this moment tell us about the future of energy security? How durable is the current ceasefire? And what energy system will this crisis leave behind? This episode explores those questions as the world navigates the largest oil disruption in history and the relative pain thresholds between Washington and Tehran.
Today on the show, host Jason Bordoff talks with Amos Hochstein about the recent developments in the Middle East. They discuss the long-term implications of Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, the war’s geopolitical and energy market impacts, and where Amos thinks this conflict is headed in the near and longer term.
Amos served as deputy assistant and senior advisor for energy and investment to President Biden, and as special presidential coordinator for global infrastructure and energy security. He is a managing partner at TWG Global and a distinguished fellow at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.
