“Everything up in the air”: LNG, the Strait of Hormuz, and Central & Eastern Europe’s energy future
"LNG shipments to Central & Eastern Europe are reliable as long as those gas markets are not overly dependent upon one supplier."
Energy has long been intimately tied to global geopolitics, power and foreign policies. The rapid pace of change in the energy sector is creating new sources of uncertainty and risk that require careful study and understanding.
On February 28, the US and Israel launched new attacks on Iran targeting primarily the country's leadership, security forces, and missile program.
The Iran war has disrupted Eastern Mediterranean gas production, exports, and development, threatened regional energy infrastructure, and increased political and investment uncertainty.
The US-Israeli war against Iran highlights the Gulf’s dual role as the backbone of global energy supply and a major source of systemic risk.
Almost 90 percent of the LNG that transited the Strait of Hormuz in 2025 was destined for Asian countries.
Within days of the initial U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026, the world was plunged into an energy crisis.
The war in Iran has significantly enhanced Latin America's geopolitical advantage as a reliable source of hydrocarbon resources.
The Iran conflict could increase the appeal of Russia as an energy supplier for China.
The war in Iran is not just another energy shock. It is arriving at a moment when Europe is already under cumulative strain: a war on its eastern border, the lingering aftershocks of the 2022 energy crisis, industrial decline, political fragmentation, fiscal limits, and a widening debate over how much of its own security it must now provide.
Media reports suggest the Trump Administration is considering restrictions on US oil exports.
The oil shock triggered by the crisis in the Persian Gulf has pushed crude above $100 per barrel, reviving familiar fears of economic turmoil in the United States driven by surging gasoline and diesel prices.