On the eve of President Trump’s deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy landscape faces a moment of unprecedented risk. With dated Brent crude already surging past $140 a barrel, the threat of tit-for-tat infrastructure strikes looms over the region. In this episode, Daniel Sternoff speaks with Ali Ansari about what’s happening in Iran, how decisions are getting made, and how the regional energy landscape is being permanently reshaped.
The conversation delves into the fractured state of Iranian decision-making following the death of Khamenei and the rise of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as both a military and a corporate hegemon. Ali explains how the IRGC’s “mosaic defense” strategy has devolved operational command to local levels, creating a political system that struggles to coordinate even basic utilities like gas and water for its citizens.
Ali Ansari is a professor of Iranian history and the founding director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews. He is also a senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute and the author of multiple books on the politics of modern Iran.
