Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated the tightening supply of natural gas, which has been underway since mid-2021, further pushing up prices for consumers and leading to fuel switching and demand destruction. It has also darkened the prospects for natural gas, especially in developing markets where it was to play a central role in energy transitions.
Natural gas demand is now expected to decline in 2022 and remain subdued until 2025. Europe’s pursuit of LNG to phase out Russian pipeline gas – combined with limited additions of new LNG export capacity – raise the risk of a prolonged market tightness and periodic shortages of natural gas.
Scaling up low-carbon gas production, the abatement of methane emissions and a faster implementation of clean energy transition policies in developed economies could help ease price competition and free up gas for price-sensitive emerging markets, where gas can deliver short-term improvements in carbon intensity and air quality by accelerating the transition away from coal.
The Center on Global Energy Policy hosted a panel of experts to discuss the latest Q3 2022 edition of the IEA’s Gas Market Report, which provides a medium-term forecast to 2025 and a short-term update on recent gas market developments in the first half of 2022.
- Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Global Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA
- Akos Losz, Energy Analyst, International Energy Agency
- Leslie Palti-Guzman, Co-Founder and CEO, GasVista
- Tom Marzec-Manser, Head of Gas Analytics, ICIS