“Any additional volatility in pipeline flows from Iran to Turkey would deepen Turkey’s bid in the Atlantic basin LNG market, diverting incremental cargoes from northwest Europe,” said Benjamin Gage, founder of Balance Point Research. This would likely result in higher European benchmark TTF prices, with the market needing to “reprice higher to protect its share of flexible LNG supply”, he added. American and Iranian diplomats held a first round of negotiations in Oman on Friday, easing immediate fears of escalation, although there was no decisive breakthrough, including around Iran’s nuclear programme. Turkey imported around 22mcm/day of natural gas via pipeline from Iran in 2025, Gage said,