This report represents the research and views of the author. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Center on Global Energy Policy. The piece may be subject to further revision. This report was funded through a gift from the Bezos Earth Foundation. More information is available here. The author would like to thank Ariane Desrosiers and Sarah Doctor for helpful research support on earlier drafts. Errors in the report are the responsibility of the author.
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Executive Summary
Near-term guidance for decarbonizing global industry is needed to ensure it happens on pace to meet Paris Agreement climate goals. Such insights would help industry and financial decision-makers as well as inform government policies meant to support the transition toward lower-carbon energy sources.
This report combines a review of country diplomatic commitments, policies, and industrial roadmaps with decarbonization scenarios and new global modeling to suggest timelines, carbon prices, regulations, and lead markets for clean products, to replace unabated fossil fuel–powered industrial facilities and equipment with near-zero carbon emissions alternatives. It also estimates the capital and operating expenditures required, and provides policy options to support these efforts.
Key findings include the following:
- To meet the Paris Agreement climate goals, the speed of global industrial decarbonization must triple from current global average rates of about 2 percent per year to at least 6.1 percent per year, depending on the level of direct carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere available to mop up residual emissions.
- To achieve these rates of decarbonization requires all new heavy industry facilities in high income countries, including China, to be near-zero emitting (NZE) by 2030 and for existing higher greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity facilities to be phased out by 2050. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the same requirements apply by 2040 and 2060.
- Lower cost partial mitigation options are already available (e.g., material efficiency and substitution; more metals recycling and direct reduction of iron; cementitious material substitution; chemical feedstock substitution; and electric heating). But full decarbonization requires commercialization of technically feasible but underdeveloped NZE processes for each sector (e.g., low-carbon feedstocks; process electrification; hydrogen reductants and fuels; and carbon capture, use, and storage).
- To implement needed industrial transformation, the authors’ modeling scenarios indicate about $88 billion per year in extra direct capital expenditure will be needed across the globe (representing 2.7 percent of the 2024 energy investment of $3.3 trillion). Another $171 billion per year will be needed for extra operational expenses, mainly for clean electricity and hydrogen and CCUS.
Recommended policy pathways for governments around the world to address these findings include the following:
- Focus policies for already commercialized but underutilized low-carbon technologies on removing market barriers (e.g., changing building codes and new cement and concrete approval processes to allow more cementitious material substitution, and enhancing building supply chains for heat pumps and heat batteries) and addressing relatively lower fossil fuel to electricity pricing. To accomplish the latter, this report’s modeling indicates policy stringency (or strength) equivalent to approximately US$250 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent in high income countries and China, and $125 per ton in EMDEs. Reaching this level of carbon pricing will be very difficult in most countries and may require a combination of regulatory measures (e.g., building GHG or steam electrification standards) and subsidies such as tax and production credits.
- Focus policies for transformative but underdeveloped technologies on supporting the building of the first NZE plants for each sector wherever possible globallyto reduce perceived risk and trigger innovation and cost declines. The first NZE plant and following clean facilities will require lead markets paying a premium to support demand, with costs distributed across the sector and passed through to end users. Policies to enable this could include green procurement; sectoral clean subsidy and cost recovery recharge schemes (where the sector as a whole funds NZE production and recovers the revenues from all sales); or tradable low-emissions production requirements, as used to drive development of zero-emissions vehicles.
- Adapt border GHG standards or carbon adjustments to specific industrial climate policies to subject importers to the same policies as domestic producers to protect more expensive domestic clean investments.
- Support the characterization and standardization of thematic green bonds to help close the upfront additional capital gap, as well as production or investment tax credits, zero-emissions material standards, and carbon pricing to close the operating cost gap.
- Set GHG standards for all major inputs into industrial processes to ensure overall emissions don’t worsen in the short to medium term versus using unabated fossil fuels. Many of the processes in this analysis depend on the use of low GHG intensity electricity and hydrogen or the use of CCUS (with specific capture rates, permanence of storage, and limits to upstream fossil fuel fugitive methane).