“Everything up in the air”: LNG, the Strait of Hormuz, and Central & Eastern Europe’s energy future
"LNG shipments to Central & Eastern Europe are reliable as long as those gas markets are not overly dependent upon one supplier."
In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically.
In the wake of the war in Iran, oil prices have shot up for everyone. But not all oil is exactly equal. And, obviously, a lot of Iranian oil goes to China specifically. Furthermore, because Iran’s oil is sanctioned, a lot of it winds up at China’s so-called “teapot” refineries, which tend to be smaller and owned by independent companies. On the other hand, China has famously been building up its strategic petroleum stockpiles for years, and due to the rise of electric vehicles, they may have less economic sensitivity to the price of crude directly. On this episode, we speak with Erica Downs, senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at the Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs. Erica has a long background studying Chinese energy policy and she talks to us about the potential cost that the war is imposing on China’s economy, why the country has built up such a big buffer stock in the first place, and how this global oil shock could ultimately play to its advantage.
If the Strait of Hormuz completely reopens, it still might not be enough to restart the economies in the Persian Gulf. Many countries there have been hammered by the oil crisis. And although allowing ships through would stanch the immediate bloodletting in the energy sector, other sectors might not spring back so quickly. Tourists are visiting less. Property markets are at risk. On today’s show, we survey the economic damage to countries in the Gulf. And try to get a sense of the long-term economic implications. The Indicator is launching a newsletter! The very first email goes out this Friday. Be among the first and sign-up now: npr.org/newsletter/indicator Come see Planet Money live on stage! 12 cities. Details and tix here: planetmoneybook.com/#tourRelated episodes: Think the oil shock is bad in the US? Look hereHow are drivers riding out the gas crisis? Will Trump’s shipping insurance plan work?For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.
China had more than a billion barrels of crude oil in reserve when the war in Iran disrupted the market. The country has also spent years diversifying its energy sources and accelerating electrification.
Welcome back to the MBN Iran Briefing. This week: Why Hungary’s ousted leader was Iran’s best friend in Europe. The talks in Islamabad fail to yield a result. And the world holds its breath as the U.S. and Iran stare each other down in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the children of the Iranian elite…
Media reports suggest the Trump Administration is considering restrictions on US oil exports.
The oil shock triggered by the crisis in the Persian Gulf has pushed crude above $100 per barrel, reviving familiar fears of economic turmoil in the United States driven by surging gasoline and diesel prices.