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External Publications by Tim Boersma & Antoine Halff • November 27, 2018
Discussions about “peak oil demand” tend to focus on passenger vehicles, often from a US and European perspective. These discussions often ignore other markets, such as marine transport, which collectively would also need to show a reduction in demand if oil consumption were to reach an inflection point. In an article for the journal Elsevier Energy Policy, CGEP Scholars Dr. Tim Boersma and Antoine Halff explore the outlook for marine bunkers, a niche market that accounts, depending on estimates, for up to 7% of the demand barrel. They focus on the possible impact of new environmental restrictions that aim to drastically reduce sulfur oxide (SOx) emissions from ships as of January 2020, placing them against the background of past innovations that have been reshaping ships’ fuel consumption patterns and assessing their likely impact on future innovation in the sector. They conclude that the rules might paradoxically end up slowing down what might have otherwise been a more rapid transition of the shipping market away from traditional bunker fuels. The rules will, however, adversely affect simple refineries and producers of heavy, sour crude oil grades, whose prices are sometimes indexed to that of high sulfur fuel oil (HSFO).
CGEP scholars reflect on some of the standout issues of the day during this year's Climate Week
Plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the transportation energy landscape, providing a practical alternative to petroleum fuels for a growing number of applications. EV sales grew 55× in the past decade (2014–2024) and 6× since 2020, driven by technological progress enabled by policies to reduce transportation emissions as well as industrial plans motivated by strategic value of EVs for global competitiveness, jobs and geopolitics. In 2024, 22% of passenger cars sold globally were EVs and opportunities for EVs beyond on-road applications are growing, including solutions to electrify off-road vehicles, maritime and aviation. This Review updates and expands our 2020 assessment of the scientific literature and describes the current status and future projections of EV markets, charging infrastructures, vehicle–grid integration and supply chains in the USA. EV is the lowest-emission motorized on-road transportation option, with life-cycle emissions decreasing as electricity emissions continue to decrease. Charging infrastructure grew in line with EV adoption but providing ubiquitous reliable and convenient charging remains a challenge. EVs are reducing electricity costs in several US markets and coordinated EV charging can improve grid resilience and reduce electricity costs for all consumers. The current trajectory of technology improvement and industrial investments points to continued acceleration of EVs. Electric vehicles are increasingly adopted in the USA, with concurrent expansion of charging infrastructure and electricity demand. This Review details these trends and discusses their drivers and broader implications.
US tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil may stem more from frustrations in US-India trade negotiations than from a concern about funding Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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External Publications by Tim Boersma & Antoine Halff • November 27, 2018