Current Access Level “I” – ID Only: CUID holders, alumni, and approved guests only
Get the latest as our experts share their insights on global energy policy.
The commercial deals Trump struck on artificial intelligence cooperation will likely shift the global balance of power for one of this century's most critical technologies.
Hear in-depth conversations with the world’s top energy and climate leaders from government, business, academia, and civil society.
In the growing conflict between Israel and Iran, many questions now loom, including the extent of US involvement, the potential for regime change, and the status of Iran’s...
Find out more about our upcoming and past events.
This year, the Third Annual Energy Opportunity Lab (EOL) Forum will take place July 7th and 8th in Washington, DC, offering a chance for the Washington policymaking community...
This issue brief, authored by Richard Nephew, Program Director for Economic Statecraft, Sanctions and Energy Markets at the Center on Global Energy Policy, examines the recent history of Iran oil sanctions and seeks to draw lessons for their renewed application. Nephew is a former director for Iran at the U.S. National Security Council and was a member of the U.S. nuclear negotiating team with Iran from August 2013 to December 2014. The views expressed here are his own.
The executive summary is below and you can download and read the full brief here (pdf).
***
Sanctions imposed by the United States and its partners against Iran’s oil sector have had a major impact in debilitating both the sector itself and the broader economy. It is likely that this sector will be the target of additional pressure should the international sanctions campaign against Iran be renewed in full.
Leaving aside the current political debate over whether new US sanctions should be imposed on Iran or threatened in law at this moment in time, it is critical to consider what impact such sanctions would actually have on Iran, Iran’s customers, and oil markets in general. Though some argue that the United States could re-create its success from 2012–2013 in imposing high costs on Iran, this is not guaranteed, and changes in oil markets, the international environment more generally, and Iran’s response to sanctions pressure will have a bearing on both the effect of more sanctions and their utility.
This briefing examines the recent history of Iran oil sanctions and seeks to draw lessons for their renewed application to date. In short, I find:
Israel’s decision to attack Iran’s nuclear program on June 12 might go down in history as the start of a significant regional war, and the inflection point that led Iran to finally acquire nuclear weapons.
The commercial deals Trump struck on artificial intelligence cooperation will likely shift the global balance of power for one of this century's most critical technologies.