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Report by Richard Nephew • July 31, 2017
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Senior Scholar Richard Nephew assesses the unintended consequences of sanctions and explores to what degree such consequences should be considered when formulating statecraft. Using the case of U.S. sanctions against Iran–which were first imposed in 1996 in the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) and followed up by the comprehensive embargo against Iran erected by President Clinton–Nephew examines whether these sanctions had a discernible, deleterious impact on Pakistan and its energy firms, as a result of a diminished Iranian natural gas sector.
Nephew concludes that Pakistan was harmed by the imposition of sanctions against Iran, but that it is impossible to ascertain how much the effectiveness of the sanctions regime would have been impaired in their absence. Based on his analysis, he offers three over-arching recommendations for policymakers considering the use of sanctions:
By almost any measure, the world should be suffering a far more severe energy crisis.
The ongoing disruption of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz has caused a substantial decline in China's crude oil imports.
The economic and humanitarian consequences of the June 24 twin earthquakes in Venezuela continue to emerge.
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Report by Richard Nephew • July 31, 2017