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Reports by Ilan Goldenberg, Jessica Schwed & Kaleigh Thomas • November 21, 2019
This report represents the research and views of the author. It does not necessarily represent the views of the Center on Global Energy Policy. The piece may be subject to further revision. Contributions to SIPA for the benefit of CGEP are general use gifts, which gives the Center discretion in how it allocates these funds. More information is available at Our Partners. Rare cases of sponsored projects are clearly indicated. For a full list of financial supporters of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA, please visit our website at Our Partners. See below a list of members that are currently in CGEP’s Visionary Annual Circle.
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Occidental Petroleum Corporation
In recent months, Iran has responded to rising tensions with the United States—particularly the US launch of the “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran—by attacking oil tankers and infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region around the Strait of Hormuz (the Strait). These actions have been designed to signal to the United States, the Gulf states, and the international community that the American strategy of strangling Iran economically will not be cost-free, and to Saudi Arabia in particular that it is highly vulnerable to Iranian retaliation.
As the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, the implications of Iran’s efforts merit close scrutiny and analysis. This study was designed to examine three scenarios for military conflict between Iran and the United States and assess the potential impacts on global oil prices—as one specific representation of the immediate economic impact of conflict—as well as broader strategic implications. The three scenarios are:
Its main conclusions are:
Though these conclusions are to some extent comforting, the authors acknowledge that a key issue with any analysis of this situation is the unpredictability of the United States. In the present moment, neither US adversaries nor partners know quite what to expect—and, for that matter, neither does the US government or its observers.
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have not only the world's lowest costs for oil and gas production but also the lowest costs for electricity generated from renewable energy sources.
World leaders are meeting in New York this month at the request of the United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres to discuss the state of global ambition on climate change.
The US imposed tariffs of 50 percent on about half of Indian exports on August 27, following a Trump administration executive order targeting the country for its continued imports of discounted Russian oil.
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Reports by Ilan Goldenberg, Jessica Schwed & Kaleigh Thomas • November 21, 2019