Pádraig Hoare: Who turned out the lights in Europe?

Ireland’s embracing of energy-usurping data centres has been well-traced and debated, but 70 are already here, irrespective of any moratorium on building more. They need to be powered, but the side-effects are becoming more and more apparent.

There have been 13 system alerts on the power grid in the past two years, the same number as the entire decade previously.

The State's power grid operator EirGrid insisted there was no threat of blackouts as two system alerts — previously called amber alerts — were issued in the past week, bringing the total to four in the past month alone.

Those “tight” moments on the system may be manageable for now, and have little to do with the energy crisis across the continent, but what happens if the geopolitical crisis involving Russia is exacerbated?

The Government says EirGrid and GNI (Gas Networks Ireland) “have emergency plans that are regularly tested”.

“These plans involve the steps that the operators will take to manage an electricity or gas supply disruption,” a spokesperson for the Department of Environment said, adding Ireland “is one of the countries in Europe that is least reliant [directly] on Russian gas”.

Tellingly, the department did concede that while contingency plans are being taken, “the possibility that the level of available generation capacity would be not sufficient to meet all demand at all times can never be ruled out”.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar attempted to strike a bullish tone.

“I want to assure people that the Government is doing everything we can to make sure that we don’t face brownouts or blackouts this winter. We managed to avoid that happening last winter. We want to make sure that we avoid that happening this winter as well,” he said.

By Thursday evening, the situation had developed into more serious territory.

The Irish Examiner reported that 2m homes and small businesses are to be asked to avoid peak-time use of electricity in order to avoid blackouts this winter.

So-called time-of-use (ToU) tariffs would encourage homes and businesses shift more energy usage to non-peak times, with different rates at different times of day, differing from traditional flat rates, which charge the same no matter when the electricity is used.

In simple terms, it would mean people turning down thermostats when heating their home or water and using cookers, tumble dryers, washing machines, showers, and kettles outside the peak hours of 4pm to 7pm in a bid to reduce energy demand at those times.

Despite this development, Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe stuck to the line that the Government does not anticipate energy shortages this winter, and that it simply prudent to prepare for such an eventuality in case the worst happened.

However, energy experts and industry figures are not convinced by the Government line.

Former managing director of ESB International Don Moore said this week that Ireland is the “least prepared” nation on the European grid for a gas crisis this winter.

University College Cork professor of energy engineering Brian Ó Gallachóir said the system encountered the "perfect storm".

"The threat is greater this year compared to last year because of the Russian invasion into Ukraine and the prospect of a disruption in gas supply. Last year, we saw gas prices rise as supply was constrained, causing price rises, but nothing like what we may see this winter. We saw electricity supply at risk last winter but not gas supply.

Last year’s risks were because we increased electricity demand, primarily from the growth in data centres, without adequately increasing gas-fired electricity supply to meet that demand at times of low wind. We had sufficient gas supply but insufficient gas-fired electricity supply.

"We can anticipate increased gas and electricity prices this winter. When we add the risk of disruption in gas supplies, this creates more challenges for us," he said.

Dr Paul Deane, senior research fellow at the UCC-based MaREI centre for energy, climate and marine research, warned last month that European nations “are all shopping in the same supermarket for the same gas, and the amount of gas coming into the shop is getting lower and lower”.

Ireland is the vulnerable it has been since the 1970s, he said.

"Our position on the periphery of Europe is precarious, because if there is any disagreement between the UK and Europe on natural gas arrangements, Ireland will end up being collateral damage. The bulk of our gas — 70% — comes through the UK.” 

The UK is busy getting its own contingency plans in order, and is currently preparing for a bleak winter.

A British government “reasonable worst-case scenario” this week outlined possible blackouts for businesses and even homes if gas shortages happen along with very cold weather snaps.

Ostensibly, it could mean four days in the dead of winter when regular folks and businesses could be compelled to use as little power as possible through state intervention.

With a new prime minister in place eager to appeal to not only the Tory Party faithful, but non-traditional voters in blue-collar regions, either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will be keen to avoid the public relations nightmare of blackouts. Taking on the bureaucrats in Brussels is a cheap, if effectively visual, vote winner for the candidate trying to shore up the Conservative Party base.

Given the UK’s repeated and flagrant disregard of agreements with the EU since Brexit, an international standoff as it hoards its energy could leave Ireland as a bystander casualty.

Dr Deane thinks it is a possibility.

“Gas is sourced from different places, such as the continental shelf and Norway, but we are very much beholden to what happens in the UK. Geopolitically, the UK is proving itself not to be the most reliable in terms of standing over international agreements. If there is gas rationing in the UK, it will very much affect us here," he said.

When put to Ursula von der Leyen by the Irish Examiner that Ireland could be at risk of a standoff, the European Commission president took an assured tone that Ireland would not be left in the lurch.

The EU Winter Plan, agreed after much back and forth between EU nations spelling out their own energy concerns, proposes a voluntary gas demand reduction target of 15% from August to the end of March for various states, as Russian supplies are further cut.

Ireland, because of its geographical location, was able to gain exemptions.

“The collective commitment to reduce gas consumption by 15% is significant. It will help fill our storage ahead of winter. With this agreement, we will also be able to provide a safety net for each member state and thus put the principle of energy solidarity, enshrined in our EU treaties, fully in action.

“The agreement I have just mentioned will ensure that each member state can receive solidarity and support in case of a severe disruption in supply. That’s the principle of the safety net. 

"Note also that the EU and the UK are cooperating effectively on security of supply, because we know we have to face this crisis together,” she told this correspondent.

The EU’s most powerful figure’s attempt to reassure leaders around the bloc has not penetrated everywhere, with German chancellor Olaf Scholz having to manage the burgeoning crisis in one of his first big tests since succeeding Angela Merkel.

Mr Scholz struck a mixed tone while speaking to citizens at his first summer conference on Thursday, warning on one hand that the coming months will be challenging, with winter looming, but on the other hand, moving to assure the people that his government has the energy crisis in hand.

“We are facing serious times, I think everyone in this country knows that. We will do everything we can to ensure that citizens get safely through this period,” he said.

“You will never walk alone,” he added.

That was reassuring talk, verging on tubthumping and spin, in a country where major cities like Hanover have already begun turning off lights.

“Germany’s presidential palace in Berlin is no longer lit at night, the city of Hanover is turning off warm water in the showers of its pools and gyms, and municipalities across the country are preparing heating havens to keep people safe from the cold,” Bloomberg reported last week, in a sign of how precarious local leaders are taking the crisis.

In Hanover, hot water was cut two weeks ago in public buildings, swimming pools, gyms and other recreational facilities, while public lighting in some areas was also knocked off.

The city’s mayor Belit Onay was succinct, saying: "The aim is to reduce our energy consumption by 15%. This is a reaction to the impending gas shortage, which poses a major challenge for the municipalities — especially for a large city like Hanover."

For generations, German political figures touted cooperation with Russia over energy as a good thing. Now with Russia becoming a global pariah over its invasion of another European country, Mr Scholz and other European leaders are finding almost total reliance on fossil fuels at the expense of renewable energy has caught up with them.

Paradoxically, the commission’s answer in the short-term is more fossil fuel generation to combat the shortage of Russian fossil fuel.

When the crisis is averted, all efforts must be put into renewables, according to Ms von der Leyen.

“We made it very clear, in our preparedness plan, that any switch to coal, if necessary to go through the winter safely, should be a temporary solution. So, ultimately, there is actually a convergence between the necessary actions to increase our security of energy supply in the short term, and our policies to reach climate neutrality by 2050.

If we put all our efforts into savings, diversifying, and rolling out renewables, we will reduce our exposure to Russian fossil fuels and become more energy independent.

“The EU has continued to make progress on the big challenges we face, notably climate change. We are the first to have adopted a climate law that sets in stone our commitment to be climate neutral by 2050. 

"Political discussions are now on-going on how to translate this into concrete actions. Member states and the European Parliament will look for consensus on these, and I am confident that we will move forward.”