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Saudi Arabia’s recent moves into the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market may be a sign the giant oil exporter is looking to expand into a rapidly growing and politically influential market it had long ignored.
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The relationship between the US and Canada, each of which is the other’s principal source of imported energy, has become increasingly fraught in recent months. Canada and the...
En route back to NYC now following a fascinating and very productive week in India with the Center on Global Energy Policy India program, led by Shayak Sengupta, and our colleagues Trevor Sutton and Dave Turk. Excellent week on the ground (other than the 28-hour flight home as Pakistani airspace was shut down minutes before our departure, prompting re-reroute to Frankfurt).
The highlight was our annual Center on Global Energy Policy India Dialogue roundtable and panel discussion about US-India energy cooperation with Minister Piyush Goyal. Thanks to Columbia’s Global Center in Mumbai and its director Rachna Tahilyani and to ReNew for the cooperation and support on the event.
In addition, enormous thanks to so many friends and leading experts for arranging such interesting roundtable discussions with our delegation, particularly Vikram Mehta, Rahul Tongia and Montek Singh Ahluwalia for hosting us at Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) and Arunabha Ghosh at Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW). Also great to catch up with friends like Suman Bery and Rohit Chandra for meals and for sharing their insights on latest developments in Indian energy sector and policy.
Thanks to Columbia SIPA alums Sumant Sinha and Vaishali Nigam Sinha for hosting me for a fireside chat at ReNew and such an terrific dinner discussion at their home. And to my friend Sunita Narain for such an interesting discussion about climate change cooperation and equity issues with civil society leaders in Delhi.
We enjoyed the chance to learn more about current energy issues in India, and share our insights about today’s complex US and geopolitical landscape, with several government leaders, including:
Hardeep Singh Puri, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas Govt of India
Tarun Kapoor, Senior Energy Advisor to the Prime Minister
Dammu Ravi, Secretary of Economic Relations, Ministry of External Affairs, India
Santosh Kumar Sarangi, Secretary of Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE)
Akash Tripathi, Additional Secretary for International Cooperation at Ministry of Power
Former Deputy Energy Secretary Dave Turk and I were also pleased to share our insights on today’s changed US energy and climate policy outlook as well as the complicated geopolitical landscape in a media roundtable with senior reporters from leading Indian news organizations.
Today, a broad shift in energy goals and priorities is underway in advanced economies like the US and Europe in which government and business leaders are returning to a focus on energy security and affordability as the dominant drivers of energy policy and investment. As Meghan O’Sullivan and I wrote in the The New York Times four years ago, you can’t maintain support for climate action if governments are not delivering energy security, reliability, and affordability along the way.
In that sense, countries like the US, Canada, and many in Europe are just moving to where a country like India has always been, as it has consistently communicated that meeting the energy needs of its massive population and rapidly growing economy is its policy imperative, followed by curbing pollution and other environmental harms.
That message was reinforced in our discussions this week. India’s power sector (and broadly energy) transition will run through solar (and storage and better grids) as well as coal. With the coal sector’s importance to jobs and public finances, as well as the greater priority all are placing on energy security today, coal may taper but is unlikely to go away anytime in the next few decades.
Low costs, energy security, and massive resources also mean solar will grow rapidly in India, although structural challenges exist in the India power sector including adequate transmission and cash flow issues from consumer to distribution to generator. Renewable energy broadly is an enormous opportunity and area of growth for India.
Although, just as is true in the US, we heard significant concerns about what rapid growth in renewables would mean for India’s dependence on China for energy supply chains. The government is using a combination of tariffs and industrial strategies to boost domestic manufacturing capability, but the scale of China’s dominant position and India’s energy needs mean it will take many years to diversify. Reducing dependence on China also risks pushing up clean energy costs, which is a key concern in a price-sensitive country like India.
India views diversification away from China in clean energy manufacturing, especially solar, batteries, critical minerals, and electrolyzers, as national and economic security imperatives, in addition to an industrial policy to advance economic competitiveness. As this is a view shared by those on both sides of the aisle in the US, diversifying supply chains away from China through expanded Indian manufacturing capacity is a key opportunity for deeper US-Indian partnership on energy policy.
Outside the power sector, there are currently few alternative sources or fuels at scale for industry, which will be the backbone of development and industrialization. The scale of India’s transition in energy-intensive sectors differs from other developing and emerging economies (except China). There is significant government ambition with energy sources such as clean hydrogen and nuclear energy, which could offer this scale, although high cost and other challenges exist. Still, the Government of India’s policy ambition in these sectors is an indication of where the frontier of the Indian energy sector lies.
India is benefiting from today’s low oil prices, but remains concerned about import dependence, and thus prioritizing diversification as a tool for energy security. Oil imports are a significant factor in determining annual public budgets.
India continues to see a need for natural gas for cooking, fertilizer, heavy transport, and some power (with less pollution than coal). It will look for additional sources of LNG imports, although exposure to the volatile global LNG market is viewed as an energy security risk, and gas only makes sense economically if LNG prices come down.
We also heard repeatedly from civil society and government leaders alike India’s insistence that global efforts to cooperate on climate action must be rooted in a recognition of historical responsibility for cumulative greenhouse gas emissions to date. This includes not only finance from advanced economies, but also India’s threats to retaliate for policies like the European carbon border tax.
India has made remarkable progress toward its renewable energy goals. The scale of India’s energy sector and energy needs of its growing economy and population, however, underscore the challenges in moving towards a lower carbon economy, as well as the costs of lower-carbon solutions in sectors such as industry and heavy-duty transport. Growing concerns about economic security and geopolitical risk (highlighted by the closure of Pakistani airspace to our flight) pose still further challenges for India to meet its energy security, affordability, development and sustainability goals.
Our India program at the Center on Global Energy Policy is expanding our efforts to improve understanding and to develop actionable solutions to these myriad challenges through our research, convening, and education.
P.S.— Finally made it to Udaipur over the weekend, which is stunning. Highly recommend!
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