More than a year after the invasion of Ukraine, it still remains unlikely that Russia will regain its role as the European Union’s (EU) leading natural gas supplier, but an eventual increase in the country’s exports to the continent isn’t out of the question. 

Europe

A top supplier to the EU, Russia exported about 140 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of pipeline gas to Europe in 2021 before the war broke out and exports were cut to a fraction of that total, forcing EU members to replace supplies. Although Russia continues to export roughly 25 Bcm/year to Europe by pipeline via Ukraine and Turkey, there is doubt volumes will ever reach pre-war levels again. 

“For Europe to buy gas again from Russia depends on when any agreement is reached; it depends on the type of agreement, and it...