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External Publications by Christof Rühl • May 02, 2022
Abstract
The world is witnessing an unprecedented episode of ‘economic warfare’, with more than 30% of global GDP (the G7’s share) pitched against 11% of global energy production (Russia’s share). This paper analyzes oil sanctions against Russia. It shows that the risk of tighter sanctions backfiring, and harming the economies of the sanctioning countries, is manageable. In terms of sanction design, sanctions and embargo announcements have so far been decentralized and voluntary. In previous episodes, sanctions have been enforced, and breaching them was punished. The paper asks whether the unilateral or the mandated model will be more successful in maximizing damage to Russia’s energy revenues, while minimizing economic damage to the sanctioning alliance. Given the scale of Russia’s supplies, a gradual approach is called for. The optimal strategy uses unilateral sanction picking as long as Russian energy exports are large enough to pose a systemic threat; and sanction enforcement thereafter.
US tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil may stem more from frustrations in US-India trade negotiations than from a concern about funding Russia’s war in Ukraine.
China’s dependence on the energy supplies that move through the Strait of Hormuz makes it especially vulnerable to any possible closure of the waterway by Iran in retaliation for attacks by Israel and the United States.
The conflict between Iran, Israel, and now the United States has yet to disrupt energy supplies to global markets.
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External Publications by Christof Rühl • May 02, 2022