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Geopolitics

Some future scenarios of Russian natural gas in Europe

Reports by Tatiana Mitrova • June 20, 2016

This study contains a number of scenario studies to assess the share of Russian natural gas in the European natural gas mix going forward. Scenarios were calculated using the NEXANT world gas model (WGM) integrated in ERIRAS modeling information complex SCANER. The calculations in the WGM are based on demand and potential production forecast in each gas producing and/or gas consuming country of the world up to 2040. The paper continues with a discussion of the (limitations of the) most often debated alternatives to Russian gas. The authors conclude that remarkable little changes in the European natural gas mix in the scenarios under study, and that absent very drastic policy interventions Russian natural gas will continue to play a prominent role in the EU.

The full study is available here [PDF]

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Steps by the second Trump administration show it is taking a tougher stance against the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Trump recently issued an executive order that could levy a 25 percent tariff on countries that directly or indirectly import Venezuelan oil starting on April 2, and it has modified Chevron’s oil license to operate in the South American nation.

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Geopolitics

Some future scenarios of Russian natural gas in Europe

Reports by Tatiana Mitrova • June 20, 2016

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