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Sanctions have become part of the Russian economic landscape since the crisis in Ukraine broke out in December 2013. They have had an impact on the Russian economy, but have yet to change the situation in Ukraine. Reports continue to emerge that the Russian government is arming and supporting insurgents in eastern Ukraine, while the political process that was supposed to help the temporary cease-fire begun in February 2015 appears to have stalled. New sanctions may therefore prove necessary, if the United States and European Union continue with their efforts to persuade Russia to contribute positively to a political solution and deter Russia from further intervention in Ukraine. One possible area for new sanctions is in the field of oil exports. Richard Nephew, a fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy and program director for economic statecraft, sanctions and energy markets, examines the possible role that an oil export reduction strategy could play in Russia. In noting the pitfalls and complications, he argues that such a strategy could be part of the overall approach to Russia, but that both different sanctions measures and a holistic approach to Russia-Ukraine policy are necessary for any effort to be successful.
The executive summary is below and the full document can be downloaded here (PDF).
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Issue Brief: Revisiting Oil Sanctions on Russia
Richard Nephew
July 2015
This paper reviews the state of the Russian economy and the role oil exports play in it. It offers an assessment of various scenarios, based on Russian economic data, for the application of sanctions pressure on Russian oil exports. I conclude that:
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